《灰犀牛》作者：新冠病毒将加速全球经济衰退！

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·聚焦国际思想市场·解析财经新闻热点·对话国际经济学大师

全球连线——对话《灰犀牛》作者米歇尔·渥克

文/李兆元

米歇尔·渥克(Michele Wucker)，财经畅销书《灰犀牛：如何应对大概率危机》作者。2007年古根海姆学者奖获得者，2009年世界经济论坛“青年领袖”，她身兼数职，担任纽约国际政策研究所所长、芝加哥议会全球事务研究中心副主任、《国际金融评论》拉美办公室主任。

网易研究局·大师：过去一周国际金融市场经历了史诗级震荡，这种震荡将持续多久？是否意味着全球金融危机的开始？

米歇尔·渥克：我们将在一段时间内继续看到很多波动，特别是，这种冲击不仅与冠状病毒对全球经济的影响有关，而且许多方面都与比2008年更大的金融脆弱性有关。由于疫情带来的混乱，新冠病毒将加速全球经济衰退。我们已经处于漫长的扩张周期的尽头，分析师已经警告了一段时间。在美国，许多部门的收入都在收缩，投资却在下降。大部分牛市是利用特朗普的减税措施回购自己股票的公司推动的，但是回购也开始减少。公司的债务水平创历史新高。IMF警告，越来越多的公司将难以靠当前收益偿还债务，而不得不动用其储备金。再加上今年是选举年，因此与竞选相关的动荡将持续下去。

市场波动持续多长时间取决于许多因素，尤其是决策者对市场冲击和健康紧急状况的反应。美联储一直在积极采取行动平息市场动荡，结果好坏参半。在股票跌幅过大引发“熔断”后，事情变得如此糟糕，以至于一些市场参与者建议暂停交易更长的时间以平静市场。如果我们在不久的将来看到更多的至暗时刻，也不要感到惊讶。请记住，这种震荡是因为美联储自去年年底以来一直在回购市场中苦苦挣扎而陷入困境。因此，这不仅是病毒冲击和石油价格冲击的问题，而且还涉及其他已经存在的不稳定问题。最重要的是，美国政府方面长期拒绝承认冠状病毒的严重性以及不可原谅的延误，这可能延长病毒持续的时间，并使经济影响进一步恶化。美国新的紧急声明帮助市场在周五反弹，但这只是暂时的，在结束之前，我们将看到更多起伏，尤其是跌势。在冠状病毒发展达到顶峰，一切恢复正常之前，市场不太可能会企稳。不幸的是，有许多未知数，很难说出来。

网易研究局·大师：全球市场震荡将如何影响中国经济和A股？

米歇尔·渥克：我总是不愿过多谈论市场，因为病毒对实体经济的影响比对二级市场的影响要重要得多，而且并不总能得到足够的重视。在美国，这一点鲜为人知，这是一个真正的问题，因为与经济前景相关的股市已被严重高估——至少直到上周为止。似乎有太多人认为，股市的强势表明强劲的经济，但美国近期的强劲表现更多与美联储提供的流动性有关，投资者认为，最好将资金放在美国市场中——特别是公司回购股票——而不是进入实体经济，因为实体经济的工资还没有跟上市场的步伐，而且步履维艰。这表明经济疲软，无法维持高股价。

中国股市的表现将部分取决于全球对中国和世界其他地区的市场情绪。同样，这取决于对中国经济的看法以及它可以反弹的速度，这还取决于全球经济的反弹速度。就像其他所有事物一样，在我们看到病毒的传播程度以及经济复苏的能力之前，没有人会有清晰的认识。长期供应链决策也将产生影响。美国很多人震惊地听到有多少处方药来自中国，再加上对供应链的重新思考：从一个地方来的供应过多实在不好。因此这可能是一个长期问题，尽管中国市场肯定很大，如果经济强劲复苏，向中国公司供应产品的制造商仍然可以在国内做得很好。

网易研究局·大师：人民币是全球资本的避风港吗？

米歇尔·渥克：每当谈到“安全”或“危险”时，你都需要问“与什么相比”？现在，在我看来，一切都是危险的。但是，有些人正在密切关注着中国，希望中国会比世界其他地区更早反弹，因为中国冠状病毒达到峰值的时间更早，这实际上取决于是否存在二次感染，以及病毒在秋季卷土重来的强度。这还取决于中国如何处理当前减少债务的问题，特别是那些受到冠状病毒严重冲击的企业和家庭。如果中国经济能够在不破坏金融体系稳定的情况下解决债务问题，将能够吸引全球资本。

在2008年的金融危机中，尽管降低了利率，但美元还是走强，因为人们将其视为资本避风港。在过去的几年中，由于美国的政策以及特朗普暗示他可能试图重新谈判债务，这种状况已经受到了挑战。幸运的是，他最近没有这样说，因此，美元这段时间一直在反弹。人们仍然担心英国脱欧后欧洲的增长和稳定，以及意大利爆发的病毒和潜在的债务问题，因此人们对欧元有不同的看法。由于近期的经济表现，日元存在风险，而由于英国脱欧，英镑也存在风险。投资者希望看到人民币国际化程度更高，但存在一个矛盾，因为人民币的国际化程度越高，波动性就越大。因此，所有的选择都很复杂。

网易研究局·大师：原油价格会继续下跌吗？

米歇尔·渥克：原油价格受到了巨大冲击，不仅受到需求冲击的影响，而且还受到供应方面的影响，因为沙特阿拉伯为报复俄罗斯突破欧佩克产量限制而对市场进行了报复。如果OPEC和俄罗斯能够就原油供应达成新协议，那将为价格提供依托。但这不太可能，部分原因是俄罗斯还希望破坏美国的页岩油生产。因此，油价下跌有两重打击：被病毒削弱的全球经济和价格战。

网易研究局·大师：投资者应如何应对风险？可以关注哪些避险资产？

米歇尔·渥克：我知道说起来容易做起来难，但是避免恐慌是关键。目前，所谓的避风港可能只是资产跌落幅度小于其他资产。对于还没有储备基金或其他资产来对冲风险的投资者来说，现在考虑这一点为时已晚。要记住，经济和市场周期是一个创造性破坏过程。它将创造机会以良好的价格在市场上购买股票，并为公司收购其他股票提供机会。很多人犯了错误，他们在底部卖得太多，或者在惊慌时做出重大决定。对于进行长期价值投资的公司，投资者将必须紧紧抓住，并相信最终情况会好转。购买商品以制造高附加值产品的公司将受益。不良资产中可能存在机会：公司收购不良公司还是以大幅折价购买其债务，并在公司复苏时随着价格上涨而受益，但是这些机会将取决于政策反应。我希望会发生的一件事是，这场危机导致全球对医疗保健基础设施进行大量投资，资金来自公共部门和私营部门。危机肯定表明需要填补，这是最好的投资。过去的经济低迷已经产生了许多新公司，企业家认为他们没有什么可失去的。那些经历了2008-2009年经济低迷的人知道情况会变得更好。值得记住的是，尤其是在一切似乎完全失去的时候，正如我最欣赏的一些分析师所说，重新入场的时间就是其他所有人都想要退场的时间。

附英文版专访：

NERB：On March 9th, global stock markets encountered “Black Monday” and the US stocks also triggered a “circuit breaker”. How long will this market shock last? Does it mean the beginning of the global financial crisis?

Michele Wucker：We will continue to see a lot of volatility for a while, particularly because this shock is not just about the effect of the coronavirus on the global economy but also about existing financial fragilities that in many ways are bigger than 2008. To be sure, the coronavirus will push the global economy into recession because of all of the disruptions. But we already were at the end of a long expansion cycle and seeing weaknesses that smart analysts have been warning about for a while. In the US, earnings were contracting and capital investment falling in many sectors. Much of the bull market had been driven by corporations who used Trump's tax cut to buy back their own shares, but buybacks were beginning to fall off. Companies have record debt levels, with the International Monetary Fund having warned that more and more companies would have trouble servicing their debts out of current earnings and instead would have to dip into their reserves. Plus this is an election year so there is campaign-related volatility that will continue.

How long the market volatility lasts depends on many factors, particularly how well policy makers respond to the market shock combined with the health emergency. The Federal Reserve has been acting aggressively to calm markets, with mixed results on different days. After shares dropped so sharply several times that they triggered temporary halts in trading, things got so bad at one point that some market participants suggested pausing trading for longer to let things calm down, as happened after 9/11. The rebound on March 13th reassured people somewhat, but don't be surprised if we see more very gloomy days again in the near future. Remember, this shock followed troubles in the repo market that the Fed has been struggling with since late last year. So it's not just the matter of the virus shock and the oil price shock, but also a matter of other already existing instabilities. On top of that, the prolonged denial from Washington over the severity of the coronavirus and the unforgivable delays in making tests available threaten to prolong the virus and make the economic impact worse. The new US declaration of emergency helped the market to bounce back Friday, but that is temporary and we will see many more ups and downs --particularly downs-- before this is over.  It's unlikely the markets will stabilize until it's clear that the coronavirus has peaked and business is returning to normal. Unfortunately, there are so many unknowns that it is hard to tell.

NERB：How will China’s economy and A shares be affected by global market shocks? How long will the impact last?

Michele Wucker：I'm always hesitant to talk too much about markets because the impact on the real economy is much more important than the impact on secondary markets, and doesn't always get enough attention. That's something that too few people understand in the United States and that has been a real problem as the stock market had become significantly overvalued related to economic prospects --at least until this past week. Too many people seemed to think that a strong stock market indicates and encourages a strong economy, but the strong recent performance in the United States has had more to do with liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve and investors thinking it was a better bet to put their money in the market --particularly the companies buying back their shares-- than into the real economy, where wages have not kept up with the markets, not by a long shot. That was an indication of a weak economy that could not sustain high share prices.

China's stock market performance will depend in part on global sentiment about China versus the rest of the world. That, again, depends on perceptions of the Chinese economy and how fast it can rebound, which also depends on how fast the global economy rebounds. And like everything else, nobody will have a clear picture until we see how the virus behaves and how well the economy can come back. Longer-term supply chain decisions also will have an impact. A lot of people in the United States were shocked to hear about how many prescription drugs come from China, and that combines with a re-thinking of supply chains in general: that it's not good to have too much supply coming from one place. So that could be a longer term issue, although certainly the Chinese market is so big that manufacturers supplying Chinese companies can still do fine domestically if the economy recovers strongly.

NERB：Some people are saying that RMB is a safe asset for global capital. Do you agree with this statement?

Michele Wucker：Whenever you say "safe" or "dangerous" or "risky" you need to ask "compared to what"? Right now everything is risky in my eyes. But some people are watching China closely in the hopes that it will rebound earlier than the rest of the world because the coronavirus peaked earlier. That really depends on whether there is re-infection, and on how strongly the virus returns in the fall. It also depends on how well China manages the ongoing issue of the need to reduce debt, particularly with companies and households that have been hurt worst by the coronavirus. If the Chinese economy can work through the debt issues without destabilizing the financial system, then it will do well in attracting global capital.

In the 2008 financial crisis, the dollar strengthened despite interest rate cuts because people saw it as a safe haven. Some of that status has been damaged in the past few years because of US policies and because of comments by President Donald Trump suggesting he might try to renegotiate debt. Luckily he hasn't said anything like that recently. So the dollar has been bouncing around this time. People are still concerned about European growth and stability post-Brexit and with the combination of the virus in Italy and Italy's underlying debt issues, so they have mixed feelings about the euro. There are pros and cons with the yen because of recent economic performance and pound sterling because of Brexit. Investors want to see more internationalization of China's renminbi, but there is a paradox, because the more internationalized the renminbi becomes, the more volatility there will be. So all of the options are complicated.

NERB：At present, the prices of major commodities are falling. Will crude oil prices continue to fall?

Michele Wucker：Crude oil prices have taken a big hit, not just from the demand shock but also on the supply side as Saudi Arabia flooded the market in retaliation for Russia's break with OPEC production limits. If OPEC and Russia can come to a new agreement on supply, that would provide support for prices. But that is unlikely, partly because Russia also wants to destabilize US shale oil production. So there is a double whammy: a virus-weakened global economy and a price war. Not good.

NERB：How should investors do to deal with the risks? What safe-haven assets can investors focus on?

Michele Wucker：I know it's easier said than done, but avoiding panic is the key. Right now, safe havens may simply be assets that fall less than other ones do. For investors who didn't already have a rainy-day fund or other hedges in place to protect themselves, obviously it's too late to be thinking about that. But it's important to remember that economic and market cycles are part of the creative destruction process. It will create opportunities to buy shares at good prices on the markets, and for companies to acquire others. A lot of people make the mistake of selling too much at the bottom, or of making big decisions when they are panicked. That's when they need to turn to level headed advisers. For companies that are long-term value investments, investors will have to hold tight and trust that eventually things will get better. Companies that buy commodities to make higher-value-added products will benefit. There could be opportunities in distressed assets -whether for companies to acquire distressed firms or to buy their debt at a deep discount and benefit as the price rises when the companies recover. But those opportunities will depend on policy responses. One thing that I hope will happen is that this crisis results in major global investment in healthcare infrastructure, with funds coming from both public and private sectors. The crisis certainly has shown a need to be filled -which is what the best investments do. And past economic downturns have produced many new companies as entrepreneurs feel they have nothing left to lose. Those who experienced the 2008-9 downturn know that things do get better. It's worth remembering that --especially at the point when everything seems completely lost. As some of the analysts I admire most say, the time to get back in is the time when everyone else wants out.