航运股疯涨疯跌后 航运业复苏能否持续?

（原标题：在经历疯狂的股市交易后 航运业正试图勾画未来前进的蓝图）

出品|华尔街情报局

Near the end of last week, a group of dry bulk ship owners and representatives of some of the biggest companies that charter their vessels huddled in Geneva, Switzerland, to talk about what was happening in their industry.

上周接近尾声时，一群干散货船舶的船东和一些大型船舶公司的代表们齐聚瑞士日内瓦，讨论他们所在行业的情况。

The strange trading taking place in the shares of the publicly-traded dry bulk ship companies, which were soaring and then plunging by the hour, had stunned the group.

这些干散货船运上市公司的股价发生了奇怪的交易，这些公司股价在一小时内暴涨暴跌，令大家感到震惊。

They had no way to explain what was going on.

他们无法解释为何会这样。

Ironically, some members of the group were bracing for a bit of a difficult start to 2017, expecting weakness in the industry during a first quarter period that usually sees a drop-off due to the Chinese New Year and reduced iron-ore shipments from Brazil to China, which make up a big chunk of the industry.

具有讽刺意味的是，这些公司中的一部分正准备迎接2017年初的艰难开局，他们预计该行业将在第一季度出现疲软，因为货运量通常会受到中国农历新年影响而下滑，以及从巴西到中国的铁矿石出口减少，这些将占到该行业利润的很大一部分。

Many were forecasting declines in shipping rates at the start of 2017 after a 2016 surge in those rates.

许多预测显示，运费在2016年飙升后，将在2017年初出现回落。

With the frenzy in shipping stocks, Amit Mehrotra, a Deutsche Bank shipping analyst who attended the Geneva meeting, was fielding more investor calls last week than he had in the previous year.

德意志银行航运分析师Amit Mehrotra也参加了日内瓦会议，对于火爆的航运股，他上周应付投资者的电话比去年还多。

“It is ridiculous the way the stocks have been trading, stocks should not go up by 1,500% in a week,” says Mehrotra.

“股价不应该在一周内暴涨1500%，这种股票的交易方式实在是太荒谬了，”Mehrotra表示。

“It’s not good for the industry as a whole.”

“这对整个行业来说都不是好事。

Mehrotra described the mood at the meeting as “cautiously optimistic.”

Mehrotra形容这次会议的气氛是“谨慎乐观”。

At the center of last week’s shipping stock madness was George Economou, the man who had initially led the Greek dry bulk shipping companies to list their companies on Nasdaq more than a decade ago.

上周船运股疯狂的核心人物是George Economou，这个男人曾带领希腊的干散货船运公司们10多年前就登陆了纳斯达克。

It was Economou’s DryShips that had its shares surge by 1,500% following Donald Trump’s election win before plummeting back down to Earth.

Economou的DryShips股价在Donald Trump赢得美国大选后疯涨了1500%，随后又暴跌回到了地球。

Economou had orchestrated a reverse stock split in DryShips’ shares at the start of November that reduced the number of outstanding shares dramatically, leading some to argue that the DryShips stock surge was either the result of a short squeeze or casino-like retail speculation that overwhelmed the thinly traded shipping stocks last week.

在11月初，Economou对DryShip股票进行反向分割,导致流通股数量大幅减少，使得一些人认为，DryShips股价的飙升，要么是打压空头，要么是散户的投机行为，从而使得交投清淡的航运股上周火爆了起来。

The MIT-trained Economou has never taken what goes on in the stock market too seriously.

受过麻省理工教育的Economou从来没有认真对待过股票市场。

“Who are my investors? Computer models, hedge funds and some institutions that go in and make $10 and get out,” Economou once told Forbes.

“我的投资者是谁？计算机模型、对冲基金和一些投资机构在赚到10美元后就退出了，”Economou告诉《福布斯》。

DryShips has long been the poster boy for the kind of poor corporate governance that has dominated the dry bulk shipping sector since Economou brought these stocks to the Nasdaq.

长期以来，DryShips就是那种公司治理糟糕的典型代表。自从Economou把干散货船运业的公司带到了纳斯达克市场，DryShips就一直在该领域中占据着主导地位。

DryShips was once worth billions of dollars, making Economou a paper billionaire, but even as its stock soared last week it was never worth more than $50 million.

DryShips曾经价值高达数十亿美元，使Economou成为了一个名义上的亿万富翁。但即便上周公司股价飙升，他的财富也从未超过5000万美元。

Even though they have real businesses, all the dry bulk shippers are micro-cap penny stocks and many of their balance sheets are in terrible shape after years of dilutive equity financings and recent tough times in the shipping market.

尽管这些干散货船运公司拥有真正的业务，但都属于微型股，而在经过多年稀释股权融资和最近市场艰难时期后，它们的资产负债表多数情况都变得很糟糕。

Any investor who buys a dry bulk shipping stock is betting more on those balance sheets than how much a Capesize vessel is earning in a given day.

任何一个购买干散货船运股票的投资者，都更多押注于它们的账面上，而不是一艘好望角型船舶在一天内赚到了多少钱。

In the middle of the stock surge last week, Economou inked a deal to sell $20 million of preferred shares to Kalani Investments.

在上周股价飙升期间，Economou将2000万美元的优先股出售给Kalani Investments。

But DryShips remains in default on some $200 million of bank loans having not made payments on credit facilities that have matured.

但在未偿还到期信贷方面，DryShips仍拖欠2亿美元的银行贷款。

On Monday, DryShips said it had reached a settlement with one of its lenders, which will write off about 50% of what it’s owed after DryShips repaid $8.2 million and agreed to repay another $2 million.

DryShips周一表示，与一家贷方达成了解决协议，对方将在公司偿还拖欠的820万美元并额外支付200万美元后，抵消掉公司所亏欠其的50%。

The Dry Bulk Index, which measures the cost to ship dry bulk materials like coal, grain and iron ore, has surged since hitting multi-year lows in February.

衡量煤炭、谷物和铁矿石等原材料航运成本的干散货指数自2月触及多年低位后已大幅上涨。

The surge was first sparked by increased activity in China, which has long been the key determining factor of the strength of the dry bulk shipping market, at least partly because of Beijing’s new stimulus program.

这一飙升是由中国引发的，至少在一定程度上是因为中国出台了新的刺激计划，长期以来中国一直是干散货船运市场强弱的关键决定因素。

Trump’s election win fueled speculation that new U.S. infrastructure spending would benefit shipping, a sector that has traditionally not really been influenced by what happens in the U.S.

Trump赢得美国大选刺激了市场对航运业的投机行为，因为美国的新基础设施支出将有利于该运业，而这一行业传统上一直没有受到美国的影响。

Diana Shipping, another publicly-traded Greek shipping company, said last week after its stock had surged that it was calling off discussions with its lenders to get debt relief, sinking its stock, which is still up 36% since Trump won the White House.

另一家公开上市的希腊航运公司Diana Shipping上周在其股价飙升后表示，该公司取消了与债权人的讨论，以获得债务减免，使其股价下跌。然而，该公司股价自Trump入主白宫后仍累计上涨了36%。

Regardless of what happened in the stock market last week, the balance sheets of most dry bulk shippers remain a wreck.

不管上周股市发生了什么，大多数干散货船运公司的资产负债表仍是一个烂摊子。

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