灰犀牛作者警告:2020前美国会大衰退!

2018-10-24 08:21:24 来源: 网易研究局
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专访诺奖得主基德兰德:没必要抵制美联储加息

网易研究局·大师

·聚焦国际思想市场·解析财经新闻热点·对话国际经济学大师


大师NO.005

对话畅销书《灰犀牛》作者米歇尔·渥克

60S要点速读:

1、任何认为牛市将无限期持续下去的人都要接受现实。事实上,现在越来越多权威分析师认为美股牛市即将结束。

2、美国企业只是将减税措施重新放回股市,使投机泡沫更加膨胀,并且未能投资于实体经济。越来越多的分析师在预测最近一次经济衰退发生的时间,我认为是2020年前,尽管许多分析师的预测比我更晚。

3、美联储加息无疑对美股暴跌造成了重大影响,但美联储加息只是故事的一部分,这意味着我们即将进入经济周期的下一阶段。

4、美国过度依赖利率来维持经济健康的假象,而实际上低利率鼓励了证券市场的投机,而不是实体经济投资。

5、值得记住的是,如果没有实体经济产生价值,股市繁荣只是泡沫,全世界投资者已过分地把股市作为经济是否健康的指标,从而忽略了他们本应该关注的地方。

6、美国的政治不稳定和被误导的经济政策是全球经济的灰犀牛。毫无疑问,世界有可能出现新一轮经济危机。

美股再暴跌!灰犀牛作者警告:2020前美国会大衰退!

以下为专访精编:

网易研究局:为什么美股暴跌?原因是什么?

米歇尔·渥克:简而言之是因为市场一直处于过度量化宽松的状态,这些强心剂将不可避免地导致股市崩盘。因为股市是不稳定的,极易受市场冲击的影响。这其中有很多具体原因:土耳其、阿根廷、贸易紧张局势、地缘政治不确定性、美联储加息等。但如果没有美国自身潜在的不稳定因素存在,那么这些原因本身是不足以导致崩溃的。在自身潜在不稳定因素的作用下,蝴蝶翅膀的一片微小羽毛都足以推翻这样一个空中楼阁的市场。

网易研究局:特朗普开启了美国新一轮牛市,这次暴跌是否意味着美国这轮牛市的结束?

米歇尔·渥克:任何认为牛市将无限期持续下去的人都要接受现实。事实上,现在越来越多权威分析师认为美股牛市即将结束。例如,桥水基金创始人Ray Dalio将此喻为棒球比赛的第七局,即接近尾声。

特朗普牛市”带来的部分股价上涨源自于约一年前国会批准的减税措施的临时刺激。企业已将其收益用于创纪录的股票回购,从而推高股价。许多企业还利用新的、较低的利率将利润遣返回美国。

但这不能长久。特朗普声称企业会借减税措施来提高工资,但这种情况并没有发生,且对经济不利。工资越低,人们透支工资的可能性就越大。这看起来会促进经济活动的繁荣,从而有助于企业利润和经济增长。但事实恰恰相反,美国企业只是将减税措施重新放回股市,使投机泡沫更加膨胀,并且未能投资于实体经济。

越来越多的分析师在预测最近一次经济衰退发生的时间,我认为是2020年前,尽管许多分析师的预测比我更晚。

网易研究局:这次美股暴跌是否是一次意外?会持续多久?

米歇尔·渥克:很难确切地说出市场暴跌持续的时间,而且我们看到股价在经过几天的下跌之后反弹,和政府联系紧密的福克斯新闻(Fox News)居然在敦促读者购买股票。我听说一些经纪人敦促客户在中期选举后不要出售,也许是为了帮助共和党,所以如果选举后股票价格下跌更多也不会令人感到意外,无论哪个党派做得更好。一些金融分析师一直在发表股票为何将继续上涨的见解。但金融业产生看涨预期所面临的压力很大。

网易研究局:美联储加息是否是美股暴跌的主要原因?如何看待美联储对加息的强硬态度?如何看待特朗普和鲍威尔之间在这一问题上的分歧?

米歇尔·渥克:美联储加息无疑对美股暴跌造成了重大影响,但美联储加息只是故事的一部分,这意味着我们即将进入经济周期的下一阶段。经济扩张只能持续这么久,美国股市最近创下有史以来最长牛市的新纪录。与此同时,特朗普引发的贸易战将对全球经济增长产生负面影响,同时也会引发通货膨胀。换句话说,有许多危险的经济力量在起作用。

我无法在不考虑摆在面前的其他政策的大局前提下回答中国是否应该提高利率的问题。提高利率将利好人民币,并符合中国去杠杆和资本配置优化的努力。但是政策组合也存在贸易和经济增长因素,如果不系统考虑,就无法评估一项政策。

美国过度依赖利率来维持经济健康的假象,而实际上低利率鼓励了证券市场的投机,而不是实体经济投资。我认为鲍威尔明白太长时间的低利率会导致资源分配不足,而且,虽然他谈到经济几乎“好得难以置信”并且对前景发表了积极看法,但我认为他也意识到经济过热和产生更大泡沫的危险,特朗普对鲍威尔的施压大概率会适得其反。

网易研究局:如何看待美国国债收益率大幅上涨?对股市有什么影响?

米歇尔·渥克:美国国债收益率上升加上风险溢价上升反映出人们对通胀和经济放缓的担忧加剧。然而,由于对立力量之间的紧张关系,债券市场将出现更多波动:那就是价格通常会随着利率的上升而下降,但与此同时,人们会在即将来临的风暴中规避风险。即使我们看到公司债务日益加剧,尤其是信贷质量下降,美元上涨和美联储政策收紧也将支撑国债价格。

债券市场也将取决于市场对美元的态度,美元长期受益于其作为全球储备货币的角色,因此在金融风暴期间其作用往往会加强,特别是当美国利率与其他国家相比上升时。但是,美国本身就是政治和经济不确定性的根源,并且目前白宫的居住者是一个职业生涯被贴上破产标签的人,美元和美国国债是否“安全”充满不确定性。唯一相对安全的“避风港”是黄金。

网易研究局:为什么近期科技股在美国股市大跌? 这是否意味着美股互联网牛市的终结?

米歇尔·渥克:科技股占据了美股的很大一部分市值,因此美股整体下跌自然而然会伤害到科技行业。但科技公司也从超低利率中受益,这使得他们可以自由地投资于创新和实验,因此从这个角度来说,美联储加息会伤害他们。

然而,美国科技公司也要为粗心的错误买单:Facebook因滥用私人数据而焦头烂额,最近谷歌未能在其Google Plus平台上披露安全漏洞。许多新的科技公司一直在不负责任地烧钱,仅仅因为钱不值钱。

然而,值得注意的是,科技公司一直在利用低利率来开发具有创造就业机会和经济增长潜力的新产品和服务,这比大多数人利用量化宽松做简单的金融投机更具生产力。

网易研究局:中国资本市场应如何应对美国股市暴跌带来的传导效应?

米歇尔·渥克:这个问题的答案不唯一,因为资本市场是一个充满不同决策和选择的复杂集合体。市场的目的是弄清楚其参与者反应的共同性。然而,资本市场必须拥有一个支持资源得到最佳利用的健康政策环境,这一点非常重要。

在美国情况并非如此。比起实体经济投资,我们的税收制度偏爱金融投资。例如,去年的税制改革并没有消除对借入证券的保证金利息的扣除,低资本收益税更偏好投资金融市场而不是实体经济。

由于资本市场近十年来大幅上涨,因此值得注意的是潮起终会有潮落,适当的调整是健康的,即使并非特别令人愉快。

值得记住的是,如果没有实体经济产生价值,股市繁荣只是泡沫,全世界投资者已过分地把股市作为经济是否健康的指标,从而忽略了他们本应该关注的地方。

网易研究局:美股暴跌和美联储加息会对中国经济造成不良影响吗?会不会有“灰犀牛”?

米歇尔·渥克:这就是为什么注意灰犀牛是如此重要,你可以看到并采取应对措施。许多黑天鹅事件的发生是因为我们忽略了灰犀牛,我们越忽略灰犀牛,黑天鹅出现时就越危险。

这就是为什么说中国比美国更早开始关注金融风险是件好事,尽管中国还有很多措施要做。中国渐进式的改革方法远比美国的方法好,美国是让问题一直持续到危机爆发为止。我担心没有足够能够影响美国金融政策的人去关注金融风险,尽管越来越多的观察者在敲响警钟 。

在这种情况下,美国的政治不稳定和被误导的经济政策是全球经济的灰犀牛。

网易研究局:最近,发达国家和新兴市场都经历了资本市场的波动。世界经济是否有可能陷入新一轮的经济危机?

米歇尔·渥克:不是可能,是很有可能。毫无疑问,世界有可能出现新一轮经济危机。对于那些研究过金融历史并且知道“这个时间并没有什么不同”的人来说,这是显而易见的。在经历了繁荣之后,在经历了我们在过去十年中看到的巨大繁荣之后,萧条也将是巨大的。

米歇尔·渥克(Michele Wucker)为畅销书《灰犀牛》作者,全球思想领袖,2007年古根海姆学者奖获得者,2009年世界经济论坛“青年领袖”,她身兼数职,担任总部在纽约的国际政策研究所所长、芝加哥议会全球事务研究中心副主任、《国际金融评论》拉美办公室主任。曾多次给《纽约时报》《华盛顿邮报》《国际政策》等媒体撰写文章。

英文实录:

1. Why do US stocks experience a plunge? What are the reasons?

The short answer is that markets have been on a "sugar high" from quantitative easing, and sugar highs inevitably end with a crash. Because the stock market is unstable, it is extremely vulnerable to shocks. There are any number of specific reasons –Turkey, Argentina, trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty, rising interest rates, you name it – but none by itself would be enough to cause a crash were it not for underlying instability. A tiny feather or flap of a butterfly’s wing would be enough to topple such a market built on air.

(1) Trump started a new round of bull market in the United States. Does this plunge mean the end of this round of bull market in the United States?

Anyone who thinks the bull market will go on indefinitely is in deep denial. In fact, more and more respected analysts now agree that the end of the bull market is near. Ray Dalio of Bridgewater, for example, described it as the seventh inning of a baseball game, or getting close to the end.

Some of the "Trump bump" rise in stock prices came from temporary stimulus from the tax cut that Congress approved nearly a year ago. Companies have used their earnings for record buybacks of their shares, driving prices higher. Many also took advantage of new, lower rates to repatriate profits to the United States.

But this can’t last. Trump claimed that companies would use the tax cuts to raise wages, but that didn’t happen, and that’s bad for the economy. The lower wages are, the more likely people are to spend extra money when they get it. That boosts economic activity, which in turn helps corporate profits and grows the economy. Instead, companies just put the tax cuts back into the stock market, inflating the speculative bubble even more and failing to invest in the real economy.

And an increasing number of analysts are predicting a coming recession –though many think it’s farther out, not until 2020, than I do.

(2) Is this US stock market plunge an accident? How long will it last?

It's always hard to tell exactly how long a market plunge will last, and we saw share prices bounce back after a couple days of losses. Fox News, which is close to the administration, actually urged viewers to buy stocks. I’ve heard that some brokers are urging clients not to sell after the mid-term elections –perhaps so as to help the the Republican Party- so it would not be a surprise if prices were to fall more after the elections, no matter which party does better. Some financial analysts are continuing to come up with reasons why stocks will keep going up. But there’s a lot of pressure in the financial industry to produce bullish estimates.

If the Fed eases off on its rate hikes –as it likely will if losses are more severe— investors will pour money in because they are more afraid of being outperformed on the way up, than in losing more on the way down. And the better the way you do on the way up, the bigger the bonus you get, while on the way down it’s bad no matter what. So, as they say, you dance while the music is playing.

(3) Fed has raised its interest rate three times within this year, does this contribute to the main reason for this plunge? How do you view the Fed’s attitude towards interest rate? Should China raise interest rates at this time? How to see the differences between Trump and Powell?

The rise in US interest rates certainly contributed significantly to the plunge. But the Fed hikes are only part of the bigger story, which is that we are nearing the next phase of the economic cycle. Economic expansion can only go on for so long, and the US stock market recently hit a new record for the longest bull market ever. At the same time, Trump’s unleashing of trade wars will take a toll on global growth, while also feeding inflation. In other words, there are many dangerous economic forces at play.

It’s impossible to answer the question of whether China should raise interest rates without looking at the bigger picture of what other policies are on the table. Raising interest rates would support the RMB and would be consistent with China’s deleveraging effort and more efficient capital allocation. But there are trade and economic growth elements to the policy mix as well, and you can’t evaluate one policy without thinking about the system.

The United States has relied too heavily on interest rates to maintain the illusion of economic health, when in fact low interest rates have encouraged speculation in the securities markets instead of investment in the real economy. I think Powell understands that too low interest rates for too long encourage poor resource allocation. And, though he has talked about the economy as almost “too good to be true” and spoken positively about prospects, I think he also is aware of the danger of overheating and creating an even bigger bubble.  Trump’s pressure on Powell also may backfire, as the idea of central bank independence is important to inflation hawks and sound money advocates, with good reason.

(4) How do you view the sharp rise of US Treasury bonds? How long will this last? What is the impact on the stock market?

Rising US Treasury bond yields reflect rising worries about inflation and a slowing economy, combined with a rising risk premium. However, we will see more volatility in bond markets because of the tension between opposing forces: prices usually fall as interest rates rise, but at the same time people are searching for relatively safety amid a coming storm. A rising dollar and tightening Fed policy will support Treasury prices, even as we will see increasing distress in corporate debt, particularly lower credit quality.

The bond markets also will depend on attitudes toward the dollar, which has long benefited from its role as a global reserve currency, and so tends to strengthen during financial storms –especially when US rates are rising compared to other countries. But when the United States itself is the source of political and economic uncertainty, and the current occupant of the White House is someone whose career has been marked by bankruptcies and has even suggested the United States might not honor its obligations, the role of the dollar and US Treasurys as “safe” is no longer certain. The only other relatively “safe haven” is gold.

(5) Why technology stocks experience plunges in the US stock market? Does it mean the end of the Internet stock bull market?

Technology stocks make up a huge part of the stock market, so it’s natural that an overall drop will hurt the technology sector. But tech companies also have benefitted from super low interest rates which have given them the freedom to invest in innovation and experiments, so rising rates will hurt them in this sense.

However, US technology companies also have inflicted wounds on themselves through careless mistakes: Facebook’s ongoing troubles over its misuse of private data, and more recently Google’s failure to disclose a security breach on its Google Plus platform. And many new tech companies have been burning through investments irresponsibly simply because money is so cheap.

It’s important to note, however, that tech companies have been using low rates to develop new products and services with potential to create jobs and economic growth –that’s a far more productive use than simple financial speculation, which is how too many people have used quantitative easing.

2. The US stock market crash was also transmitted to other major capital markets in the world. The Chinese A-share market hit a four-year low.

(1) How should China's capital market respond to the transmission effect brought by the US stock market crash?

There’s no one answer, since a capital market reflects the interaction of many different decisions and priorities. And the purpose of markets is to work out how collectively its participants respond. It’s very important, however, for capital markets to have a healthy policy environment that supports optimal use of resources.

That is not the case in the United States. Our tax system favors financial speculation over investment in the real economy –for example, last year’s tax reform did not eliminate a deduction for margin interest on borrowed securities, and low capital gains taxes encourage investment in financial markets rather than the real economy.

Because markets have been largely gaining for nearly a decade, it’s worth a reminder that what goes up eventually goes down; that some amount of correction is healthy, even when it is not particularly pleasant.

It’s worth remembering that without the real economy generating value, stock market booms are merely fictions –and the world has paid too much attention to stock markets as indicators of economic health rather than where they should be looking.

(2) The Fed’s interest rate hike and the US stock market crash have had a significant impact on the Chinese market. Will this cause systemic risks in the Chinese economy? Will there be a "black swan" incident in the Chinese economy?

By definition, you can only see black swans when looking backward; the concept is useful in reminding us that surprises can happen, but while the exact nature of a surprise is unknown, it is certain that we will get a surprise.

That’s why it’s so important to pay attention to gray rhinos, which you can see and do something about. Many black swans happen because we ignore gray rhinos; and the more we ignore the gray rhinos, the more dangerous the black swans become when they do appear.

That’s why it is good that China started paying attention to financial risk long before the United States did, though of course there is still much work to do. China’s gradualist approach to change is far better than the United States approach, which is to let problems grow until a major crisis explodes. I fear that not enough people with the power to shape US financial policy are paying attention –though more and more observers are sounding the alarm.

In this case, US political instability and misguided economic policies are the gray rhino charging at China and the global economy.

Like every country, China has its own systemic risks. Unfortunately United States policy has interfered with China’s efforts to reduce financial risk, but that’s not a reason to stop reforming. China is limited in what it can do to affect US policy, but it has considerably more power in how it responds.

3. Recently, both developed and emerging markets have experienced big crashes in capital markets. Is it possible for the world economy to fall into a new round of economic crisis? Will the United States usher another "Great Recession"?

Absolutely a new round of economic crisis is possible –not only possible, but likely. That is obvious to anyone who has studied financial history and knows that “this time is NOT different.” Busts come after booms, and after a boom as big as the one we’ve seen over the past decade, the bust will be big too.

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杨泽宇 本文来源:网易研究局 责任编辑:杨泽宇_NF6036
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