巴菲特:若在中国找到合适行业 会毫不犹豫的投资

（原标题：北大光华学子与“股神”巴菲特4小时面对面，他们都谈了啥？）

网易财经2月20日讯  美国中部时间2月17日，全球知名的“巴菲特午餐”访问活动在沃伦巴菲特的家乡奥马哈举行，北大光华学生代表与巴菲特进行了4小时对话。巴菲特在问答中表示，中国是一个很大的市场，具有非常多的可能性。如果在中国能找到合适的行业、合适的时间、合适的管理团队，我们会毫不犹豫的投资。

【问答实录】

根据现场内容整理如下信息，分享北大学生与股神的精彩问答：

Q: What is your latest idea of investing in China? And if you are going to do some investments in China, which industries will be your priorities and why?

您对在中国投资有兴趣吗？如果在中国投资的话，最看好哪个行业？

巴菲特: China is a huge market and there are more possibilities because of its size. My partner Charles Thomas Munge looks at China a lot. We focus on not price but valuation of companies. We do close research on the companies and try to buy the whole business when we invest. During the last 50 years, the population grew rapidly in China and it was full of talent and people resources. Some interruptions will not disturb its development. China and the US will become two superpower economies in the future. We do appreciate big investment opportunities in China as this country has more chances.

中国是一个很大的市场，具有非常多的可能性。我和我的合作伙伴Charles Thomas Munge有很多关于中国的讨论和研究，我们注重公司的价值而非股票价格，希望购买下整个企业以进行运营。在过去的50年，中国人口飞速发展，人口红利巨大。一些波折并不会影响中国发展的脚步。中、美将来会是两大经济强国。如果在中国能找到合适的行业、合适的时间、合适的管理团队，我们会毫不犹豫的投资。

Q：You are one of the richest men in the world, as well as one of the most generous. What is your view of wealth? Is it established at the very beginning at a young age, or is it developed through different phases of your life?

您既是世界上最富有的人之一，也是最慷慨的人之一。您是如何看待财富的？这种观念是一开始就有的，还是逐渐建立起来的？

A：This is a good question, about money. Money can buy most things, but it cannot buy time and love. I have only one thing that can count as luxury—a private jet. Other things are the same as yours. Money has no utility beyond certain point and the usage is the same to everyone. Charity can change life of many people. My wife and I both agree that we should spend money to solve the important societal problems. For example, universities in the US have external funding, but the diseases curing in Africa may not have funding.

Money can bring many interesting experiences. I enjoy this game of investing. However, more stuff does not mean happier. Money cannot buy love. When people try to control their kids through money, it may bring disasters. I believe taking care of family is very important.

巴菲特：这是个好问题，我们来谈谈金钱。金钱很有用，但它买不到两样东西：时间和爱。我有一样东西可以算作奢侈品——私人飞机，其他东西都和你们一样。在超过某个特定节点之后，金钱就失去它的效用了。慈善可以改变很多人的生活，我和我太太都认为我们应该把金钱用在解决社会问题上。比如美国的大学有很多资金，而非洲的疾病治疗资金却很短缺。

金钱可以带来很多有趣的体验，我享受投资。但是，拥有更多的东西不见得会更快乐。金钱无法买来爱，当人们试图通过金钱去控制自己的孩子时，可能会带来灾难性的结果。我认为照顾好家人是很重要的。

Q:Bill Gates once said you are the most optimistic person he has ever known. Do you think you are optimistic, and why? Is it born with or learned later?

比尔盖茨曾说您是他认识的最乐观的人。您认为自己是乐观的人吗？乐观是与生俱来还是后天培养的？

A: Optimism is a very important quality for a good investor. The result of life is getting better and stronger. Compared to Age of Jefferson (like back to 1776), people did not make a lot of progress. In less than 3 life times, significant changes and developments happened. Why? Human are not smarter, nor working harder, but we hung on with our potential. The economic system and government policies are delivering unbelievable results. Compared to old times when people died, and had fewer choices, everyone in the room live a better life. Our children, younger generations will live even better. Optimistic is realistic.

乐观对于一个好投资者来说是至关重要的品质。现在与三个世纪前的杰斐逊时期相比，人口、交通、经济制度、政府、法治等各个方面都发生了巨大的变化和进步。人们并没有更聪明，或更努力，而是学会更好地利用自己的潜能。现在这个房间里的任何一个人都比过去最富有的人生活得好，享受着更好的医疗、更好的娱乐……变好的趋势还会延续下去，我们的孩子会生活得比我们更好。面对这种社会的进步，我怎能不乐观呢？乐观的就是现实的。

Q：If you were president, how would you make the immigrant policy?

如果您成为总统，会如何制定移民政策？

A：Welcoming immigrants is a grand American tradition. The country couldn’t be here without the contributions from immigrants.

In 1939, two Jewish immigrants, Albert Einstein and Leo Szillard, wrote a letter to President Roosevelt, alerting him to Germany’s undergoing research of "extremely powerful bombs of a new type" and recommending that the U.S. begin similar research. The letter saved US. Steve Jobs was son of immigrant. When people comes, the market comes.

President Trump is reaching to the clear present danger. However, U.S. would be a better country 50 years from now if it keeps the great tradition.

美国一直对移民抱有开放欢迎的态度，这也是美国能走到今天的重要原因。谷歌等美国企业的成功离不开移民的贡献。

1930年代，有两位犹太裔移民为了躲避德国纳粹来到美国，成为美国公民。他们就是阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦和利奥·西拉德。1939年，他们向时任美国总统的罗斯福写了一封信，提及德国正在研究核武器，建议美国尽早进行相应研究，这封信拯救了美国。如果往近了说，史蒂夫·乔布斯也是移民的儿子。要知道，人气愈旺，市场愈旺。

有些人担忧移民带来的潜在危险。特朗普总统的移民政策对当下这些潜在威胁做出了反应。然而，移民们是出于对美国的热爱而选择这个国家。如果美国保持对移民的开放态度，50年后的美国会更加美好。

Q：You have picked many successful companies previously. And the market will see your purchase of the stock as signals of confidence, how does this influence on your positions?

您过去发现了许多成功的公司。您的投资成为整个市场的风向标，这对您的投资带来怎样的影响？

A：I have signed some confidential treatments with the SEC, but not for my portfolio. We still need to disclose our portfolio holdings 45 days of the end of the quarter. However, I think there should be intelligence properties behind the idea of what stock to buy and these ideas should be protected.

Management like the announcements though. But it will cost us a lot of money and it is negative to our investment. I have made attempt to not disclose what I am buying. We keep in mind to minimize the effects on market from our investment decisions.

我与证监会签署了一些保密合约，但公司的投资组合依然遵循证监会信息披露的标准。每一个季度我们都需要公开公司的投资组合。然而我认为，交易决定本身其实也是知识产权。这些公告会推高成本。我尽量不公开我们的交易，减少对市场的影响。

Q: What is your view of the struggling newspaper industry?

你怎么看待报纸行业的发展？

A：In the old time, the advertisements on newspaper were source of information and it spread everything. Nowadays, the industry is declining and the classified sections do not help anymore. They lose print circulation, and thus the advertisement revenue. The internet accelerates the change of newspaper and news need to be in time. New York Times’ and Wall Street Journal’s digital part allows them to keep some print circulation (joint cost synergy). Washington Post increased online activity a few years ago. Most newspapers have not found a feasible way of paid online subscription.

在过去，报纸上的广告是重要的信息来源。而今天，这个行业在走下坡路，分类广告不再那么重要，报纸的发行量在下降，广告收入不断流失。网络的发展加速了报纸的改变。报纸的发行量下降。纽约时报、华尔街日报的在线部分使得他们可以继续发展纸质发行（成本共享），华盛顿邮报也在几年前开始了线上部分。其它大部分报纸还没找到可行的电子收费模式。

Q：What is the most important improvement you make during the investments?

有哪些事情对您的投资产生了重要的影响？

A：I was focusing on technical analysis when I was young. The intelligent investor, the book written by Benjamin Graham, reset my whole investment thinking. It taught me how to think about stock market. From my perspective, there are two courses that should be taught in all business schools: how to think about stock market and how to value stocks. Margin of safety is always the principle of investment.

The formula of investing never changes. First, how sure you are? Second, how soon it will to get you there? Third, what to do to achieve it?

Investing is buying a piece of business. You could buy business with one million dollars in Omaha. What will you invest? Maybe a fast-food restaurant since people need to have food every day. Go through the ideas in your mind, look at things, and grab information. That is why investing is amazing: you only need to make decisions rather than do it by yourself. Since the market prices change every day, opportunities are always there. Mr. Market is there to serve you. You should utilize it when he goes crazy rather than let him take pressure on you.

本杰明·格拉罕（Benjamin Graham）的《聪明的投资者》(The intelligent investor)对我的影响很大。我刚开始投资的时候一直侧重技术分析，而这本书彻底改变了我的投资思路，教会我如何理解股票市场。在我看来，商学院教投资只需要两门课：一是如何思考股票。二是如何对股票进行估值。投资策略的准则就在于安全边际(margin of safety)。

投资的秘诀从未改变。你可以问问自己，首先，你对这笔投资有多肯定？其次，你需要多久达到预想的目标？第三，具体要怎样做？

投资就是买一盘生意。一百万美金可以让你在奥马哈投资三个项目，你会投资什么？你可能会投资快餐店，因为奥马哈的人们每天都需要吃饭。如此种种，你会有一个思路。这也是投资的乐趣所在——你只需要做出决定，而不需要自己亲手去做生意。同时，由于市场价格每天都在改变，也就意味着每一天投资都有不同的机会。你要利用市场先生（Mr.Market）的疯狂或愚蠢，而不是被他所影响。

Q：What is the best investment, favorite investment and learned-most investment in your life?

您最喜欢的投资是什么？

A：The best investment is in yourself. On my wall in the office, there is a certificate degree of Dale Carnegie Course, which I signed up for giving public talking. This is the best investment ever in my life.

Also we should invest in right friends. Associating with important friends will shape your life. Right friends or a spouse can make a huge difference in your life, such as my partner Charlie Munger.

When I was a student, I went to an insurance company, GEICO,  in Washington DC downtown on a Saturday afternoon. And I pounded on the door and the custodian let me in. He introduced me to the only person at the office at that time and he gave me a 4 hour brief about the insurance business, which changed my life.

When I want to know about coal industry, I would ask people in coal companies, which competitor’s stock you will buy and which you will short and why? That is very useful for marketing research since people love to talk about their competitors.

有两笔投资是我认为最值得的。

首先是对自己的投资。任何可以提高你能力的投资都是值得的。年轻时我不擅公众演讲，于是我报了一个Dale Carnegie课程，提高自己的演讲能力。这让我受用一生。

另外就是对朋友的投资。一个人交往的朋友会塑造他的人生，如我的合伙人芒格。1951年我21岁，想投资保险公司。可那时我对保险行业一无所知。我在哥伦比亚大学的老师、本杰明·格拉罕当时在政府员工保险公司(GEICO)任职董事，所以我坐火车去华盛顿找他。可惜我忘记了那是周六，他不上班。公司的一个管理员为我开了门，把我介绍给Lorimer Davidson。他当时是公司的副总裁。他知道我是格拉罕的学生，于是与我聊了四个小时，为我讲解了整个保险行业，这改变了我的一生，他成为我一辈子的良师益友。

曾经我想投资煤矿行业，我会问煤矿公司的朋友，你会买你们公司哪个竞争对手的股票？如果你要沽空某竞争对手的股票，你会沽空谁？为什么？当问一圈后，你对这个行业就基本了解了。这个方法在做市场研究的时候非常有用，因为人们往往更愿意谈论竞争对手。