CMC:21日外汇市场分析评论

The VIX leapt 17% yesterday after 13 consecutive daily declines extended to 7-month lows of 33.95. The move was no surprise in the midst of the 3-4% decline in US indices. Technically, yesterday’s close at 39.18, meant a close above the April 9th gap-down move of 39.00, which is a necessary requirement for undoing the intensification of bearishness in the VIX (optimism in the markets). Key resistance stands at the 200-day MA stands at 42.75. Tomorrow's release of the IMF's official World Economic Outlook and possibly its take on global banking losses) as well as markets' reluctance to post any marked advances ahead of the release of the stress tests on US banks.

VIX（波动率指数）连续13个交易日下跌，至7个月的低点33.95后，昨天VIX跳涨17%。由于美国股指此前下跌3-4%，VIX的大幅上涨也就在意料之中了。技术上，昨日收盘价39.18回补了4月9日的向下跳空缺口，这是否认波动率指数加速走熊（有利股市）的必要条件。关键阻力在200日均线42.75。明天IMF将公布对世界经济展望报告，可能重点关注全球银行业的损失。在美国公布美国银行压力测试结果前，市场不愿明确表示任何观点。

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Germany's April ZEW economic sentiment index (forward-looking indicator) leapt to +13.0 from -3.5, entering positive territory for the first time since July 2007, while the current situation index (present conditions) hit a 6-year low of -91.6 from -89.4. While the divergence between forward and present looking ZEW indicators had been emerging since October, the deterioration in the current situation index has diminished markedly, reaching its smallest pace since November 2007. The IFO sentiment survey bears similar patterns, with its current situation index showing its smallest deterioration pace since October 2008. The evolving pattern is promising for the months ahead for the single currency, but the impact of global appetite should prevail. Euro looking to eke out gains above $1.30 but upside seen capped at $1.3065 as any upswing in market sentiment has yet to resist a flurry of US earnings

德国4月ZEW经济情绪指标（领先指标）从-3.5跳涨到13，是自从2007年7月以来首次进入到正值范围，而当前形势指数却从-89.4跌到-91.6，创出6年新低。其实从去年10月份开始该指标对未来和目前形势的判断就出现了背离：判断当前形势的指数的恶化已经明显减缓，是自从2007年11月以来最小的下降幅度。IFO情绪民调展示了相似的情况，该指标出现了自2008年10月以来的最小下降幅度。逐渐好转的指标对欧元未来几个月有利好作用，但是全球投资者对风险资产的态度仍然起到决定性作用。欧元或将上涨到1.30以上，但上方的压力线在1.3065。由于美国部分公司财报利好，市场理应追逐美元，但市场对风险资产情绪的回暖抵抗住了对美元买入。

Sterling’s recovery to $1.4560s from its 7-week low of $1.4470 emerged on overall stabilization in risk appetite and better than exp earnings from Tesco, shrugging the lowest annual CPI figure in Mar 2008 (2.9% from 3.2%) and the first negative retail price index in since 1960. Sterling bulls may argue that recent selling has been widely ahead of Wednesday’s Budget and any further losses are unlikely because the bad news is priced in. Yet in addition to the Budget, UK unemployment is due to show renewed increase in claimant count in March and a 4.6% unemployment rate from 4.3%. Friday’s twin release of UK Q1 GDP and Mar retail sales will be key. Sterling’s negative bias to remain as long $1.4680 upside is held, while selling to stabilize at $1.4390 (55-day MA)m followed by $1.4360—50% retracement of the rally from the March 11 low to last week’s high.

英镑从其7周低点1.4470反弹到1.4560，这是因为市场对购买风险资产态度的稳定，加上TESCO好于预期的财报。从1960以来英国首次出现负零售价格指数。英镑短期上涨说明周三预算公布前对英镑的抛空并不是市场的普遍行为，而进一步下跌也不太可能出现，因为利空消息已经被市场消化。但是除了预算数据之外，英国就业数据显示申请救助的人数在3月再次创出新高，失业率从4.3%上升到4.6%。周五公布的英国一季度GDP和3月零售数据都非常关键。但是只要1.4680的压力没有被突破，英镑的弱势还将持续，下方支撑在55日均线形成的1.4390和1.4360，后者是从3月11日上涨到上周高点反弹回调50%的位置。

The Canadian dollar intensified losses across the board ahead of today’s interest rate decision (exp unchanged at 0.50%). But the real news from the Bank of Canada will be Thursday’s monetary policy report, which will shed more evidence on the central bank’s intentions to move into credit easing. The 1.24 and 78.70 targets for USDCAD and CADJPY called yesterday were realized in Asia Tuesday trade before a retreat in Europe. CAD looks more bearish against JPY than against USD, with CADJPY vulnerable to 78.70 and 77.70. USDCAD seen capped at 1.2440, with support limited at 1.2340.

在今日利率决定前（预期保持0.5%不变），加元下跌加剧。但是正式消息要到周四货币政策报告发布。加央行或正打算进一步采取信贷宽松政策。昨日所说的美加的目标位1.24和加日目标位78.70在周二亚洲时段实现，而在欧洲时段出现回调。加元兑日元看起来比加元兑美元更弱，加日很可能跌至78.70和77.70。美加的阻力位在1.2440，下方支撑在1.2340。

Prolonged losses in the FTSE-100 seen reaching 3,875 as early as today , which is the target from the current Head&Shoulder formation as well as the 38% retracement of the rally from the March lows to the April highs. Currently we're at 3,912,testing the 55-day MA. And Traders are unlikely to want to be long FTSE-100 ahead of tomorrow's Budget/retail sales.

英国富时100持续下挫，昨日曾打到3875，刚好是近期头肩顶形态的目标位，同时也是从3月低点到4月高点反弹回调38%的位置。目前在3912附近，正在测试55日均线的支撑。在明日预算和零售数据出炉前，交易者不倾向于做多富时100。

Canada’s decision to target monetary reserves of C$ billion is textbook “quantitative easing” (not only credit easing), which is the way the Bank of Japan announced policy easing in 2002-04. Canadian dollar damaged across the boars as the Bank of Canada is the latest central bank to dive into quantitative easing by unexpectedly cutting rates by 25-bps to 0.25%, revising down its 2009 GDP growth forecast to -3% from previous 1.2% and revises 2010 forecast to +2.5% in 2010 from earlier +3.8%. Market was expecting rates unchanged, followed by an explanation of its intentions on Thursdays’ policy update. But decision to balance a target balance is weighing on the loonie across the board. Considering the escalating positive correlation between CAD and equities (+0.74 since April and +0.73 since Jan) any further deterioration in risk appetite is to magnify losses in CAD. USDCAD seen extending gains towards 1.2650, CADJPY eyes 75.70 and EURCAD at 1.6360.

加拿大决定继续向市场注资是教科书上所描述的“定量宽松政策”（不仅仅是信贷宽松政策），这是日本央行在2002年到2004年采取的政策。由于加央行是最近一个通过意外减息25个基点至0.25%来寻求定量宽松政策的央行，加元大幅下挫，并且加拿大将2009年GDP增长从1.2%修正到-3%，对2010年的预期从3.8%调降至2.5%。市场之前预期加拿大利率不变，周四将在政策更新会上进一步说明。但是平衡目标账目的决定使得加元承压。考虑到不断增强的加元和股市的正相关性（从4月计算，相关性为0.74，从1月计算，相关性为0.73），对买入风险资产态度的恶化将加剧加元的下跌。美加或将上涨到1.2650，加日目标位为75.70，欧加目标位1.6360。